Global Civilization

Honors Seminar HONP-103-10

Prof. Giszpenc

March 11, 2009

Environment: Global Climate Change

What are the emissions of countries represented here?

In the world, the range of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in tons of CO₂-equivalent per person goes from a low of 0.16 for Eritrea to 34.4 for Bahrain (not counting a ridiculous figure for Niue). US is about 24. Japan is 10.6. Canada is 23.7. Bolivia is 2.6. Rwanda is not listed.

For just CO₂ emissions, Rwanda has 0.06 tons per person, compared to 0.77 for Bolivia.

�CO₂ is by far the largest contributor to global warming, and the major source of CO₂ is combustion of fossil fuels. The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates the need for an immediate 50-70% reduction in global CO₂ emissions in order to stabilise global CO₂ concentrations at the 1990 level by 2100. Various policy options are available to reduce emissions, including energy efficiency measures and switching to less carbon intensive fuels, e.g. from burning coal and lignite to natural gas. The World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD ) held in Johannesburg in 2002 made commitments towards the urgent and substantial increase in the use of renewable non-carbon energy sources, such as wind, wave and solar power, but also including biomass. It also urged the setting-up of programmes to promote sustainable consumption and production patterns which should lead to reduced CO₂ emissions.� http://unstats.un.org/unsd/environment/air_co2_emissions.htm

The following figures are from the �Climate Change Reference Sheet� by Christian and Leslie, March 3, 2009.

Pre-industrial CO₂ levels = 590 billion tons of carbon or 278 ppmv (parts per million by volume)

Pre-industrial stock of all GHG in CO2 eq = 290 ppmv (or equivalent to 615 billion tons carbon)

2005 CO₂ levels = 803 billion tons of carbon or equivalently 379 ppmv (1 ppmv CO₂ = approx. 7.7 Gt CO₂ = approx. 2.12 GtC
(387 ppmv or 820 GtC as of January 2008)

2005 stock of all GHG in CO₂eq: 430 ppmv

Annual emissions of CO₂: 38 Gt (in 2005)

Annual emissions of all GHG in CO₂eq: 49 Gt

Expected increase in temperature if GHG stocks stabilize at 550 ppmv CO₂eq: 2 � 4.5 deg C
(equivalent to 1166 GtC)

1. Pre-industrial amount of GHGs is equivalent to around 600 Gigatons (billion tons) of carbon, just below 300 parts per million by volume (ppmv).

2. By 2005 carbon dioxide amounted to 379 ppmv, equivalent to 803 billion tons of carbon. All GHGs amounted to 430 ppmv in CO2 equivalent.

3. What happens every year?

a. We have the carbon in the atmosphere already (stock).

b. We have carbon emissions being added to the atmosphere.

c. We have carbon transferring back out of the atmosphere. It takes on average 120 years for carbon to transfer out. If we take pre-industrial levels as the base level that stays no matter what, then each year 1/120^th of the extra carbon in the atmosphere goes away.

4. Let�s start from 2005, and have a normal year:

a. Could each country please read out its most recent greenhouse gas emissions.

i. Total = 11,628 million tons or equivalent to 11.6 Gigatons CO₂ = 3.16 GtC emitted.

b. In fact the annual global emissions of GHGs in CO₂ equivalent is about 49 Gt.

c. How much carbon got taken out of the atmosphere? (803-590)/120 = 1.775 GtC (equivalent to about 6.5 Gt CO₂)

d. To summarize: the countries in this room put in 11.6 Gt of CO₂-equivalent. Globally the total was around 49 Gt. And about 6.5 Gt got taken out. Net addition of 42.5 Gt.

5. OK, this year let�s get serious about cracking down on this problem. What will happen if we all reduce our emissions by 10%?

a. Countries, what are your new, much lower emissions?

i. Our total is now 10,465 million tons or equivalent to 10.5 GtCO₂

b. If the whole world�s emissions went down by 10%, that would be 44.1 Gt in.

c. How much got taken out? Remember that last year about 11.6 net Gt of carbon got put in. So it�s (803+11.6-590)/120 = 1.87 Gt of carbon transferred out (equivalent to about 6.9 Gt CO₂)

d. The results are: we here put in 10.5 Gt of CO₂ equivalent. The whole world put in 44.1 Gt. About 6.9 got taken out. So we�re left with a net addition of 37.2 Gt of CO₂ equivalent. (That�s just over 10 Gt carbon, which means another 4.8 ppmv.)

6. Now you see what the problem is. And most countries are increasing their emissions, not decreasing them.

a. Discussion questions:

i. Should developing countries that have low emissions per capita have to reduce emissions? What if they don�t, what will developed countries have to do?

1. China and India together account for over 1/10^th of GHG emissions. But:

2. Per capita emissions (tons CO₂e/person/year) in the US: 23

3. Per capita emissions in EU15, Japan: 10

4. Per capita emissions in China: 4

5. Per capita emissions in India: 1

ii. How much do you think the world will have to cut emissions to stabilize the amount of GHGs in the atmosphere?

1. The Kyoto protocol calls for 55% reduction from 1990 levels. If the whole world did this, emissions would go from 49 Gt to 22 Gt. This is still way more than gets taken out every year. And the Kyoto protocol doesn�t cover all countries.

7. Now let�s talk about what happens when the GHGs in the atmosphere rise.

a. Expected increase in temperature if GHG stocks stabilize at 550 ppmv CO₂eq: 2 � 4.5 deg C� (equivalent to 1166 GtC)

b. What difference could a couple of degrees make?

i. Four volunteers please.

ii. You are sunshine, arctic ice, albedo, and temperature. Can you guess what your roles are?

1. Sun shines on ice.

2. Ice is either still frozen or getting slushy.

3. This affects albedo: amount of sunlight that gets reflected vs. amount absorbed.

4. Albedo / amount of sun absorbed affects the temperature.

1. Temperature affects whether ice stays frozen or starts to get slushy.

iii. When all is going well, temperature is low enough for ice to stay ice. Try acting this out.

iv. Now let�s just pop up the temperature by 2 degrees C. What happens?

v. Positive feedback loops are scary.

Country	Year	GHG emissions in million tons of CO₂ equivalent, latest year available	Change in GHG emissions since 1990	1990 or 1995 emissions (million tons)	target emissions	10% reduction from most recent emissions
Rwanda	2004	0.57	8.30%			0.513
Botswana	1994	9.29	�			8.361
Bolivia	2000	21.46	40.10%			19.314
Myanmar	2004	9.76	128.70%			8.784
Guatemala	1990	14.74	0			13.266
Vietnam	1994	84.45	�			76.005
Nigeria	1994	242.63	�			218.367
Ireland	2004	68.46	25.6%, 23.1%	55.6	113%	61.614
South Africa	1994	379.84	9.40%			341.856
India	1994	1214.25	�			1092.825
Russian Federation	2006	2190	-34.20%	3323	100%	1971
Brazil	1994	658.98	11.10%			593.082
Canada	2004	758.07	21.7%, 26.6%	594	94%	682.263
France	2004	562.63	-0.80%			506.367
China	1994	4057.31	�			3651.579
Japan	2004	1355.17	5.3%, 6.5%	1261	94%	1219.653
		11627.61				10464.849

Sources: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/environment/air_greenhouse_emissions.htm

http://unstats.un.org/unsd/environment/air_co2_emissions.htm

If you�re interested in what individuals can do about this and other environmental issues, visit The Center for a New American Dream at www.newdream.org. They have lots of really good resources.